Movement in tender prices in Scotland 

The BCIS Scottish Tender Price Assessment (TPA) Panel comprises cost consultants from firms involved in multiple construction tenders across Scotland and helps track pricing trends in accepted tenders. It reports on quarterly and annual movements in tender prices and provides insight into the conditions influencing pricing levels on construction projects across Scotland.

Commentary in 3Q2026 was collected through a Delphi survey and a panel meeting.

Scottish tender prices increase by 1% in 3Q2026

Building tender prices in Scotland increased by an average of 1% in 3Q2026 compared with the previous quarter and by 3.5% compared with 3Q2025, according to the BCIS Scottish TPA Panel.

The latest panel findings point to increased contractor appetite to tender, although cost and risk pressures continue to vary by project type and location.

Almost two-thirds of panellists reported that contractors were eager to tender in 3Q2026, up from 38% in 2Q2026. A further 40% said they were able to secure their desired number of suitable tenderers.

Panel commentary suggested that contractor order books would become clearer in the coming weeks, as decisions are often deferred over the summer. Anecdotal evidence also indicated that contractors were becoming less selective about tendering opportunities compared with the same period last year.

However, panellists reported greater caution around project risk amid events in the Middle East. Contractors were reported to be seeking increased risk allowances for later project stages, reflecting pressure from their supply chains. In some cases, they remained selective where projects were complex or carried greater risk.

The panel also discussed the rejection of plans to replace Monklands Hospital in Airdrie. Panellists suggested this could ease pressure on market resources, following concerns that the hospital project, alongside prison construction in Glasgow, could stretch available capacity.

Panellists reported significant effects from changes to imported steel tariffs and quotas. In some cases, steel contractors were reported to have withdrawn from projects because of uncertainty, while others had been offered higher prices to remain committed. Cost pressures were also reported to be more pronounced in some energy-intensive packages.

Looking ahead, 80% of panellists expect their pipeline of projects going to tender over the next 12 months to remain unchanged compared with the previous year. The remaining 20% expect a slight increase.

Dr David Crosthwaite, chief economist at BCIS, said: ‘The Scottish market appears relatively resilient despite wider pressures associated with steel tariff and quota changes and the conflict in the Middle East. The panel’s findings suggest contractor capacity is not overly stretched, although the picture on selectivity is mixed. Contractors reportedly remain cautious about higher-risk opportunities while showing greater willingness to compete for smaller tenders, particularly contracts below £5 million.

‘Cost pressures persist, with higher tender prices still being reported in remote areas and the Scottish islands, reflecting fuel costs and labour shortages. According to the panel, defence and healthcare projects are also seeing greater uplifts than commercial schemes, potentially reflecting limited supply chain capacity.

‘The coming months should provide a clearer picture of contractor order books. The decision on Monklands Hospital also raises questions about how planned public spending and associated market capacity may be affected. Overall, the panel findings suggest a relatively resilient Scottish market, but with cost pressures continuing to vary by sector and location.’

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Panel members:

• Dean Carrick, Atkins Realis
• Gordon Ritchie, Gardiner & Theobald
• Iain McLean, Doig + Smith
• Ken Wilkie, Arcadis
• Ross Lovatt, Thomson Gray
• Jamie MacDonald, AECOM
• John McGuire, Egis
• Jordan Smith, Thomas and Adamson
• Lynsay Turnbull, Egis
• Paul Dodd, Scottish Futures Trust
• Simon Brooke, Currie Brown
• Stuart Scott, Arcadis
• Suzanne Graham, Turner & Townsend

BCIS Scottish Tender Price Assessment panel – methodology.