Analysis of movement in house price indices

Each month, Halifax, Nationwide and HM Land Registry publish house price indices, tracking the movement in average house prices in the UK. Halifax and Nationwide updates are based on mortgage approvals data, while the UK HPI is a joint production by HM Land Registry, Land and Property Services Northern Ireland, ONS and Registers of Scotland. 

House price indices show continued annual growth

House prices grew in the year to September 2025, according to Halifax⁽¹⁾ and Nationwide’s⁽²⁾ indices.

Halifax reported a 1.3% annual increase in house prices, while Nationwide’s index showed an increase of 2.2% in the same period.

Dr David Crosthwaite, chief economist at BCIS, said: ‘Although house price growth remains broadly positive, it’s well below the level of consumer inflation, so could be said to represent a fall in real terms.

‘Looking at the price trend, it’s no real surprise that developers are stalling bringing new homes to market. Rumours of what might be in the Budget regarding the housing market are also not helping a market that appears to stagnating.’

On a monthly basis, Halifax said prices decreased by 0.3% on August 2025, while Nationwide’s index showed a 0.5% rise.

Elsewhere, the Financial Conduct Authority, which collects mortgage lending data via the Mortgage Lending and Administration Return, reported⁽³⁾ the value of new mortgage commitments (lending agreed to be advanced in the coming months) increased by 14.6% in 2Q2025 from the previous quarter – the highest since 3Q2022.

Amanda Bryden, Head of Mortgages at Halifax, said movement in its HPI represented the slowest annual rate since April 2024.

She said: ‘While affordability remains a challenge, a relatively lower mortgage rate environment and steady wage growth have helped support buyer confidence. Although the broader economic outlook remains uncertain, with the affordability picture gradually improving, we continue to expect modest growth through the remainder of the year.’

Nationwide’s Chief Economist, Robert Gardner, said the broad stability in the annual rate of house price growth over the past three months mirrors that of activity.

He said: ‘Despite ongoing uncertainties in the global economy, underlying conditions for potential home buyers in the UK remain supportive. Unemployment is low, earnings are rising at a healthy pace, household balance sheets are strong and borrowing costs are likely to moderate a little further if Bank Rate is lowered in the coming quarters as we, and most other analysts, expect. Providing the broader economic recovery is maintained, housing market activity is likely to strengthen gradually in the quarters ahead.’

The UK HPI⁽⁴⁾, with the latest data for August 2025, showed a 3.0% increase in house prices compared with August 2024, with a 0.8% increase on July 2025.

As the UK HPI figures cover house sales that may have been agreed in months previously, there tends to be a lag in the data.

^{Source: Halifax (Methodology), Nationwide (Methodology), UK HPI (Methodology)}

The latest regional data from Nationwide shows Northern Ireland and the North again saw the greatest annual increases in 3Q2025.

There was a 9.6% rise in house prices in Northern Ireland while growth in the Outer South East region slowed to 0.3%.

^{Source: Nationwide}

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^{(1) Halifax – House Price Index – September 2025  - here}

^{(2) Nationwide – Annual house price growth steady in September  - here}

^{(3) FCA – Mortgage lending statistics – September 2025  - here}

^{(4) GOV.UK – UK House Price Index for August 2025  - here}