Analysis of movement in house price indices

Each month, Halifax, Nationwide and HM Land Registry publish house price indices, tracking the movement in average house prices in the UK. Halifax and Nationwide updates are based on mortgage approvals data, while the UK HPI is a joint production by HM Land Registry, Land and Property Services Northern Ireland, ONS and Registers of Scotland. 

House price indices show continued annual growth

House prices rose in the year to October 2025, according to Halifax⁽¹⁾ and Nationwide’s⁽²⁾ indices.

Halifax reported a 1.9% annual increase in house prices, while Nationwide’s index showed an increase of 2.4% in the same period.

Dr David Crosthwaite, chief economist at BCIS, said: ‘House price growth remains well below the level of consumer inflation, and this dynamic continues to challenge the housing market. Budget speculation is not helping and appears to be depressing the market ahead of potential changes to property taxation.’

On a monthly basis, both Halifax and Nationwide said prices rose on September 2025, by 0.6% and 0.3% respectively.

Elsewhere, the Financial Conduct Authority, which collects mortgage lending data via the Mortgage Lending and Administration Return, reported⁽³⁾ the value of new mortgage commitments (lending agreed to be advanced in the coming months) increased by 14.6% in 2Q2025 from the previous quarter – the highest since 3Q2022.

Amanda Bryden, Head of Mortgages at Halifax, said October saw the biggest monthly rise in UK house prices since January this year.

She said: ‘Demand from buyers has held up well coming into autumn, despite a degree of uncertainty in the market, with the number of new mortgages being approved recently hitting its highest level so far this year. There is no doubt that affordability remains a challenge for many. Average fixed mortgage rates are currently around 4% and likely to ease down further, but with property prices at record levels, moving home can feel like a stretch.’

Nationwide’s Chief Economist, Robert Gardner, said the housing market has remained broadly stable in recent months amid modest house price growth and a steady level in the number of mortgages being approved for house purchases.

He said: ‘Against a backdrop of subdued consumer confidence and signs of weakening in the labour market, this performance indicates resilience, especially since mortgage rates are more than double the level they were before Covid struck and house prices are close to all-time highs. Looking forward, housing affordability is likely to improve modestly if income growth continues to outpace house price growth as we expect. Borrowing costs are also likely to moderate a little further if Bank Rate is lowered again in the coming quarters.’

The UK HPI⁽⁴⁾, with the latest data for September 2025, showed a 2.6% increase in house prices compared with September 2024, with a 0.6% decrease on August 2025.

As the UK HPI figures cover house sales that may have been agreed in months previously, there tends to be a lag in the data.

^{Source: Halifax (Methodology), Nationwide (Methodology), UK HPI (Methodology)}

The latest regional data from Nationwide shows Northern Ireland and the North again saw the greatest annual increases in 3Q2025.

There was a 9.6% rise in house prices in Northern Ireland while growth in the Outer South East region slowed to 0.3%.

^{Source: Nationwide}

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^{(1) Halifax – House Price Index – October 2025  - here}

^{(2) Nationwide – Annual house price growth edges higher in October  - here}

^{(3) FCA – Mortgage lending statistics – September 2025 - here}

^{(4) GOV.UK – UK House Price Index for September 2025  - here}