EPC indicators point to uneven housing delivery momentum

Analysis of housing supply indicators suggests that housing delivery in England remains uneven, with short-term improvements sitting alongside weaker trends over the past year.

Weekly domestic Energy Performance Certificate (EPC) lodgement data for new dwellings, published by the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government⁽¹⁾, indicates that around 158,700 net additional homes were delivered between 1 April 2025 and 11 January 2026. This brings the estimated total number of net additional homes delivered since the start of the current Parliament to 309,600.

EPC lodgements are published at a higher frequency than the annual net additional dwellings statistics and provide a more timely indication of housing delivery within the year. The latest data show some signs of short-term improvement, but the longer-term picture remains mixed. EPC lodgements for new dwellings in 3Q2025 were 3% higher than in the same quarter a year earlier, while lodgements in the year ending September 2025 were down 5% compared with the previous 12 months.

These trends align with other indicators of housing supply published in the government’s quarterly Housing supply: indicators of new supply release. Building control data for 3Q2025 show that housing starts were unchanged on the previous quarter, while completions fell compared with both the previous quarter and a year earlier, reinforcing the picture of uneven momentum across the housing pipeline.

Based on delivery levels recorded so far in this Parliament, a simple projection suggests that, if the current pace were maintained over the full five-year term, total net additional homes would reach around 1.03 million, below the government’s ambition to deliver 1.5 million homes.

Dr David Crosthwaite, chief economist at BCIS, said the data highlights the scale of the challenge ahead.

“The latest EPC-based indicators highlight how uneven housing delivery momentum remains, with short-term quarterly improvements sitting alongside weaker delivery over the year,” he said.

“Meeting longer-term ambitions will require sustained acceleration rather than isolated upticks. There are some encouraging signs that delays associated with the Building Safety Regulator are beginning to ease, and the Planning and Infrastructure Bill receiving Royal Assent just before Christmas should help reduce friction in the system.

“However, supply-side improvements will need to be matched by a firmer recovery in housing demand, which in turn depends on more positive movement in the wider economy and continued easing in borrowing costs. The next 12 months will be a critical test of whether these conditions come together to deliver a meaningful and lasting uplift in housing delivery.”

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^{(1) GOV.UK – Housing supply: indicators of new supply, England: July to September 2025 – here}