A more coordinated approach, but more work to do
Responding to recent reports and industry commentary, Dr David Crosthwaite, chief economist at BCIS, said that while good progress has been made, the government should prioritise creating the conditions that enable employers to invest in people, and develop a clearer understanding of where the most pressing skills gaps exist.
‘It’s easy to become too focused on the numbers and the variation between them,’ he said. ‘For example, the Construction Industry Training Board’s latest outlook estimates that an additional 41,200 workers will be needed each year between 2026 and 2030 to meet forecast demand.
‘At the same time, Skills England estimates that around 493,000 additional workers will be needed across construction priority occupations by 2035, alongside a further 595,000 replacement workers to offset those leaving the industry over the same period. These estimates provide useful context, but what matters is how quickly and effectively government and industry respond.
‘Arguably, the most important lever is creating the right business environment for employers. Many firms are currently operating in a persistently challenging market. Demand remains subdued, confidence is weak and the project pipeline lacks certainty. For many businesses, particularly SMEs, there is little incentive or capacity to take on apprentices, recruit new staff or invest in developing their existing workforce.
‘If the government wants to tackle the skills challenge, it must create conditions that give employers the confidence to invest. Measures that reduce the cost of employment, provide greater certainty around taxation and borrowing costs, and improve confidence in future workloads will all be important.
‘There needs to be a much better understanding of where the skills shortages actually exist too. Recent National Audit Office findings suggest the government has not consistently modelled where future skills gaps are likely to emerge. Improving this evidence base should be a priority, alongside greater engagement with construction businesses of all sizes to understand the challenges they are experiencing on the ground.
‘Our own tender price panels, composed of cost consultants involved with multiple tenders each quarter, suggest that current capacity constraints are largely concentrated in finishing trades and mechanical, electrical and plumbing (MEP) work. However, those pressures change quickly as project pipelines evolve. Construction has always relied on a degree of labour mobility and flexibility because workloads fluctuate and project timings change.
‘The objective should therefore be to create an environment in which employers can recruit quickly if demand increases, while also encouraging greater long-term investment in attracting and developing new talent through education and training.
‘There is also an opportunity to strengthen devolved approaches to skills as regional governance continues to evolve. Labour shortages are rarely uniform across the country, and giving regional authorities greater influence over skills planning and funding could help ensure that training provision is better aligned with local labour market demand.
‘There is already a great deal of positive work taking place across the government and the industry. The goal now is to maintain that momentum while establishing a stable and predictable economic environment. If business conditions improve alongside a strong pipeline of new entrants, the industry will be in a much stronger position to meet future demand.’
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