The Building Cost Information Service (BCIS) is the leading provider of cost and carbon data to the UK built environment. Over 4,000 subscribing consultants, clients and contractors use BCIS products to control costs, manage budgets, mitigate risk and improve project performance. If you would like to speak with the team call us +44 0330 341 1000, email contactbcis@bcis.co.uk or fill in our demonstration form
Published: 06/07/2026
BCIS produces five-year construction industry forecasts, covering projected input costs, tender prices and output, and examining the latest construction market trends.
The quarterly BCIS infrastructure briefing is a civil engineering market report and reflects our view of water and sewerage, electricity, roads, railways, harbours and flood defences, gas, air and communications, and infrastructure repair and maintenance output against a backdrop of civil engineering costs, including labour and materials, and the wider economic background.
This forecast is based on information available up to 15 June 2026. The full briefing is available to subscribers of BCIS CapX, the leading service for construction costing activities.
BCIS infrastructure forecast – 1Q2026 to 1Q2031
Civil engineering costs are forecast to rise by 15% over the next five years to 1Q2031, while tender prices for civil engineering work are expected to increase by 19% over the same period, according to BCIS’s latest infrastructure forecast.
Infrastructure output is forecast to grow by 1% in 2026 and, between 2026 and 2031, to increase by 14%.
Dr David Crosthwaite, chief economist at BCIS, said: ‘There is a particularly striking contrast between short-term market conditions and the longer-term outlook for infrastructure. Current activity levels have weakened and new orders have fallen sharply, yet there remains a substantial pipeline of planned investment in the energy, water and sewerage sub-sectors.
‘The key question for the sector is how quickly projects move from commitment to delivery. Until investment begins to translate into activity on site, the infrastructure environment will continue to be characterised by cost uncertainty, selective bidding and cautious optimism.’
The BCIS Civil Engineering Tender Price Index (CETPI), which measures movement in civil engineering tender prices, i.e. prices agreed between client and constructor at commit to construct, saw annual growth of 1.6% in 1Q2026.
Dr Crosthwaite said: ‘The BCIS Civil Engineering TPI panel reported slightly softened but stable activity compared with the previous 12 months, varying by sub-sector. The electricity, aviation and water sub-sectors are active, while the road sub-sector is characterised mainly by repair and maintenance work.
‘Panellists said contractors have become more selective about the tenders they pursue, reflecting the rising cost of tendering, and are seeking greater cost recovery from clients, particularly through early contractor involvement arrangements.’
The panel agreed on 2% quarterly movement for 2Q2026, resulting in annual growth of 3.7%.
On input costs, the BCIS General Civil Engineering Cost Index (GCECI) increased by 3.3% in the year to 1Q2026. Cost inflation is expected to rise more sharply in 2Q2026, driven by the conflict in the Middle East, by 2.7% on the previous quarter. Steel prices are a particular concern, with multiple factors feeding in, including the conflict itself, Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism requirements and changes to steel tariff quotas from the start of July that will see import quotas reduced by 51% and imports above those quotas subject to a 50% tariff.
Dr Crosthwaite said: ‘Our civil engineering TPI panellists remain hopeful that the ceasefire agreement will result in reduced materials cost inflation, though any improvement is unlikely to be visible for at least six months.’
Infrastructure output contracted by 1.7% in 1Q2026 compared with the previous quarter, resulting in a 4.9% annual decline. New orders fell by 11.2% in the first quarter of 2026, representing a substantial annual decline of 36.3%.
Dr Crosthwaite added: ‘The scale of the decline in new orders is significant, but it needs to be read alongside the broader investment commitments already in place. The pipeline exists, the challenge is translating it into activity, and that process is taking longer than the sector would like.
‘At the start of 2026, markets were anticipating rate cuts that would have supported project viability and investment decisions. That picture has shifted considerably, and for a sector heavily dependent on public and private capital commitments, the interest rate environment is now an additional headwind at an already uncertain time.’
To keep up to date with the latest industry news and insights from BCIS register for our newsletter here.
Quarterly updates to forecasts are published for infrastructure, building, and maintenance, cleaning and energy, while an annual update is published for the economic significance of maintenance.
